- September 6, 2019
- Posted by: Mike Hedges AM
- Category: Press Releases
As we get closer to the end of October and with Parliament to be prorogued with the royal orders stating that parliament will be prorogued ‘no earlier than Monday 9th September and no later than Thursday 12th September’. This paves the way for the government to hold a Queen’s Speech , laying out its plans , on 14 October.
Despite this we still have only the three options regarding the European Union that we have had for a long time : Leaving without a deal, leaving with a deal similar to, if not identical to, the one that has been rejected three times by the house of commons or staying in the European Union.
We will leave at the end of October without a deal , if nothing is done to stop it,. There is a belief by some that it would be catastrophic for the economy but others, many of whom voted to leave expect nothing to happen and for Britain to continue to trade as we do today. With no-deal the UK would immediately leave the European Union with no agreement about the leaving process.
Overnight, the UK would leave the single market and customs union – arrangements designed to help trade between EU members by eliminating checks and tariffs . No deal also means immediately leaving EU institutions such as the European Court of Justice and Europol, its law enforcement body. Membership of dozens of EU bodies that govern rules on everything from medicines to trade marks would end.
Under a no-deal Brexit, there would be no time to bring in a UK-EU trade deal. Trade would initially have to be on terms set by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Trading on WTO terms would also mean border checks for goods, which could cause bottlenecks at ports,. No deal would also mean the UK service industry would lose its guaranteed access to the EU single market.
Could a variation of the rejected deal come forward dealing with the Irish border. The European Union cannot allow another country, not in the customs union to have unfettered access to European markets. What they fear would happen is that goods would come into Britain and via Northern Ireland enter the European Union without Tariffs or quotas.
Would an agreement that the Northern Ireland backstop would only continue until an ICT or technological solution can be found and that both the European Union and the British Government are committed to achieving that as soon as is possible allow the deal to be accepted. There has been a belief that having a technological solution would be easy , generally from people who have no idea how ICT works.
Staying in the European Union is possible but it would be seen as a betrayal of the electorate and could not be achieved unless we had a second referendum, which even if desired could not be achieved by the end of October.
So we are left with a straight choice of no deal or a variation on the deal three times rejected by the house of commons which is not a good place to be.
Lots of countries will happily offer us a free trade deal, it is what they want in return that is frightening.
New Zealand will want a free trade deal to include Lamb without any quotas
Australia, Brazil and Argentina and many others will want a free trade deal to include beef without any quotas
China will want a free trade deal to include steel and manufactured goods again without any quotas
The USA will want to export beef but also to have the National Health Service opened up to American corporations.
If we leave without a deal we will be a different Country next year.